I have not blogged in a while, but given the recent changes in the world, I am starting up a new series called The New Normal. My goal is to start to get my head around how our current situation is going to change the world in the next 3-5 years. Like many have already written, I believe we are in the midst of a new normal, with changes in habits that will last a very long time.
The Current Situation – A Shock Equilibrium
The coronavirus pandemic has put the world into a complete shock equilibrium. Given the easy spread of the virus, we have instituted shelters in place, physical separation (currently 6 feet), restrictions on indoor spaces and large gatherings of people, and required mask-wearing.
The old equilibrium of how the economy has worked has shifted. Companies that thrived just a few months ago (Airbnb, Uber, Southwest, AMC, luxury retailers like Neiman Marcus) are now struggling to survive. Environments that congregate groups of people, focus on in-person experiences or close human interactions (restaurants, concerts, sports arenas, movie theaters, airplanes, holiday travel, crowded malls, public transportation, hair stylists/salons, open-space offices, places of worship) have been shut down. Organizations have had to completely shift their experience online or suffer.
On the other hand, online-based businesses like online shopping, online work tools, remote work tools, eSports meanwhile have exploded with huge tailwinds. Remote-workforce apps that were just trudging along a few weeks ago have exploded in growth.
We now live in a new economy and it is very different from where we were just 2 months ago.
The posts I write in the future are predictions based on this new normal. Keep in mind these are just predictions and bets – not absolute truths. Many will end up wrong. Unlike most blogs, I am keeping these as living documents – updating them as we learn more. I’ll do my best to include updates in the post.
- We are not going back to close to pre-Covid normal until at least May/June 2021 (not 2020!).
- 20-30% of people in white-collar jobs will work from home at least 2 days a week.
- Business Travel is going to be down 40% long term.
- Commercial Office Space Glut, the end of the open workspace, and the beginning of rent-a-conference room booms.
- We may see a great unraveling of location-based company workforces and an even bigger shift-to-remote
- Group indoor exercise is going to be much different for the next few years
- An Explosion in BioPharms innovation
- Dine-in “Experiences” will be significantly curtailed as 30% of restaurants go out of business.
- We will see new models of long-distance “connection” and interactions that will last longer than Covid.
- Obsession with Tracking and cleanliness will lead to entirely new industries.
- Prediction #11: VCs, Startups and the Great Covid Business Divide
- Prediction #12: The Rise Of The Bootstrap Entrepreneur
- The No-Code Movement Is Going To Have Its Moment In The Sun
- Sports Betting Is Going To Explode