Prediction #6: Group indoor exercise is going to be much different for the next few years

Assuming we need masks and 6 feet of separation in indoor spaces, in-person group exercise places are going to have a major shock.  

Gyms and Basketball Facilities

With recent reports showing the spread of the virus in exercise areas, expect a huge decrease in the number of gyms, basketball facilities, etc. Expect a large number of gyms near offices to go bankrupt while some premium gyms switch to a more premium, appointment-based model that limits the number of people in a gym. Also expect a lot more expenses on cleaning. Meanwhile, expect an increase in at-home equipment purchases and subscriptions to virtual instructors like Peloton, Future Fit and Tonal.

The end of Dance facilities/Spin facilities – 

Dance facilities, spin facilities – recent studies in South Korea have shown that dance facilities are a vector for the virus given the close quarters and heavy breathing. Given the close quarters and the fact masks likely cannot be worn during exertion, it seems unlikely that these facilities will be able to open until the virus has been removed. This will result in 50%+ of facilities closing. The ones that survive will start their own online exercise programs – similar to Peloton and Peloton dance. I hypothesize that we will see a huge increase in online dance classes and online dance class platforms. We may also see new technologies emerge to use video AI to judge form or take individual dancers and combine them into a video.  


  • Appointment software for gyms
  • At-home video trainers(i.e. future fit, Mirror, Tonal and Peloton).
  • Home gym equipment both basic (dumbbells) and interconnected (Mirror, Tonal)
  • Online dance studio software. Software that lets dance studio professionals produce professional-quality videos online.
  • Dance Studio hardware – cameras and flashes to allow dance studios to promote their workouts.
  • Crowdsourced video-based games – think of a new generation of DDR. Expect a network-ed version of Dance Dance revolution letting people play against each other using video AI.
  • Outdoors dance studios – a proliferation of dance and yoga classes that are outdoors during sunny days.
  • Home equipment using AI to check and adjust for dance moves.
  • Higher volume of online-based personalized training (think Peloton, Future Fit)
  • Increase in home “sport courts” and putting greens for backyards including new backyard sporting good facilities.
  • Exercise-ready masks (masks with materials that can prevent covid spread but also allow people to breathe more deeply when exercising)

If you currently are working on one of these opportunities or want to work on them, please contact me at charlie at iamcharliegraham dot com